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Showing posts with label asx. Show all posts
Showing posts with label asx. Show all posts
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Rio hits record iron ore production

Rio Tinto (RIO) released its second quarter operations review showing sizeable y/y increases in production and shipments of iron ore, as well as material increases in copper, aluminium, thermal coal and titanium dioxide production.

If you've been up to the Pilbara in recent times, you'll already know what a spectacular sight the operations up there represent. From the ASX release:


"-Record first half iron ore production, shipments and rail volumes despite a conveyor belt 
breakage resulting in one of five ship loaders being side-lined for almost three weeks and 
unseasonal wet weather which led to flooding in the Pilbara. 

-Expansion of Pilbara capacity to 290 million tonnes per year remains on budget and on time to 
deliver first tonnes by the end of the third quarter of this year. Delivery of first tonnes will be 
followed by a steady commissioning and ramp-up period. Completion of the Rail Capacity 
Expansion infrastructure project was the most recent milestone reached in the quarter."

Some have pointed out that this is not all beneficial to Australia as our major resources companies are 100% not Australian-owned.

This is true: Rio has a very complex group structure being a dual-listed group with a maze of subsidiaries, and ownership is spread widely around the world - as indeed are its ~70,000 global employees.

A glance at Rio's segmental reporting disclosures in its most recent annual report shows that a large chunk of the group's gross revenue is from iron ore production, with a sizeable percentage being shipped to China.

The Australian-based employees will benefit from the group's massive wealth (the group has a global market capitalisation of well over $100 billion) and of course Australia will benefit from mineral royalties, which is good news for the state of WA.

Such major projects also create employment and revenues for mining services companies, so the increasing levels of production can have a knock-on effect.

And this, naturally, is what Australia wants to happen through the second phase of its mining boom.

Meanwhile, Rio will hope that the iron ore price stays as high as it is today at above US $125/tonne.

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Will interest rates hit a record low 2.50% next week?

It looks like it, and 22 of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg think so.

And so do the futures markets.

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on August 6.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures August 2013 contracts are trading at 97.410 which indicates a 79% expectation of an interest rate decrease to 2.50% at the next Board meeting.

It seems that with the benign inflation print (particularly with the effect of the carbon price stripped out), the RBA has room to go again.

The market has become gradually more convinced over the last 4 trading days, with the implied likelihood of a cut creeping up from 62% to 79%...


Source: ASX

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ASX 200 - largest two day gain since December 2011

XJO up 1.68% today following yesterday's big gains of 1.63% - two of the largest gains in 2013 back-to-back.

If there's anything to learn from this it's that chartists often have as little clue as anyone else what often-irrational share markets will do next, however cleverly they try to word their predictions.


Source: ASX

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ASX sell-off

Markets down as expected following the Fed announcement, but it turned into something of a sparked sell-off, with the XJO down 2.12% on the trade.

The dollar is getting whipped, touching 92.3 cents, somewhere much closer to 'fair value' and a more comfortable place for our economy by and large.


Source: ASX

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Cochlear tanks 18%

COH down more than 18% today after it released a dreaded 'Market Update' to the ASX.

Always shy away from putting too high a percentage of your portfolio into individual stocks. 

It is tempting so to do in order to chase big gains, but it is better to create wealth slowly and surely.

A well-diversified LIC can hold well over 100 of the top stocks and trusts (and sometimes even invests in other LICs) so an individual company running into problems has little impact. 

Focus on the growing dividend stream and not only the day-to-day share price and buy more when the market is low.

Cochlear's 6 month chart:


Source: ASX

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Where to next for interest rates?

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on July 2.

As at the close today, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures July 2013 contract was trading at 97.365, indicating a 49% expectation of an interest rate decrease to 2.50% at the next RBA Board meeting.

So it's effectively a coin flip or a 50:50 bet for July.

I tend to favour a wait and see approach; others like to see the RBA get 'ahead of the curve'.

For what it's worth, I feel that the RBA might just as well wait until after the next round of CPI data on July 24 - inflation is what the central bank 'does' after all - though I don't expect the next CPI print to throw up any worries just yet.

Either way, recent data sets including the disappointing GDP print of 0.6% and others lead me to suspect that we'll be heading to 2.50% sooner rather than later, perhaps by August.

Plenty of commentators are going to great lengths to highlight the slow response of the housing markets to interest rate cuts.

Hmm...maybe yes, but also don't forget that interest rate cuts can take a long time to 'flow through' - perhaps up to 18 months for the full effect to be felt - and housing finance figures have been steadily rising for some months now. 

I wouldn't be writing off the housing recovery just yet, although the forthcoming election certainly might lob a decelerating spanner in the works.

Anyways...here's what the futures markets imply, which is basically a rate cut by August and perhaps yet another by around March 2014, by which time we'll know with far more certainty how the property markets are responding.

Thereafter the yield curve implies that consumption and construction will have started to respond and the Australian economy will resume on an upwards path.

Hopefully so, but we must acknowledge that there is likely to be some level of higher unemployment in this cycle. 

Mining construction is a labour-intensive affair - more so that mining production - so there are likely to be some employees out of work as the great rebalancing takes place.

As for what the blip in the yield curve at January 2014 represents...?


Source: ASX

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Key data this week to determine direction of rates

Labour force data on Thursday and then housing finance on Friday.

Also keep an eye out for the NAB Business survey today as a guide to confidence.

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on August 6.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures August 2013 contracts are trading at 97.335 which indicates only around a 4 in 10 expectation of an interest rate decrease to a new record 2.50% at the next meeting.

Key factors in the forthcoming decision will be unemployment figures on Thursday, whether or not the dollar experiences anything resembling a major collapse (currently just back above 91 cents) and of course the inflation data on July 24. All capital city property markets are experiencing rising dwelling prices, but the RBA has suggested that this may be a necessary pre-cursor for construction to pick up.

The yield curve still implies another rate cut by November before the economy begins to pick up again in the second half of 2014 as low interest rates stimulate activity...


Source: ASX

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