Key data this week to determine direction of rates

Labour force data on Thursday and then housing finance on Friday.

Also keep an eye out for the NAB Business survey today as a guide to confidence.

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on August 6.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures August 2013 contracts are trading at 97.335 which indicates only around a 4 in 10 expectation of an interest rate decrease to a new record 2.50% at the next meeting.

Key factors in the forthcoming decision will be unemployment figures on Thursday, whether or not the dollar experiences anything resembling a major collapse (currently just back above 91 cents) and of course the inflation data on July 24. All capital city property markets are experiencing rising dwelling prices, but the RBA has suggested that this may be a necessary pre-cursor for construction to pick up.

The yield curve still implies another rate cut by November before the economy begins to pick up again in the second half of 2014 as low interest rates stimulate activity...

Source: ASX

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