Interest rates heading to record lows

So, the RBA left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.75% yesterday.

But today's data hasn't inspired much confidence, and Stevens noted that the RBA deliberated "long and hard" even about yesterday's decision. 

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on August 6, and thus it's already looking like a cut is a done deal even at this distance (unless, as noted, for some reason inflation spikes or the Aussie dollar genuinely collapses).

The ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures August 2013 contracts are trading at 97.370

This indicates an interest rate decrease to 2.50% at the next RBA Board meeting on August 6 is more likely than not (a 59% expectation is implied).

The yield curve suggests that the easing cycle might even have further to run that that - we might even see a cash rate of just 2.25% by early 2014...

Source: ASX

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